Call it a hunch, but I don't see the Phils making a big splash in free agency, and I don't blame them. Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito will command upwards of $10 million per year deals, and I'm not sure either are worth it. Unfortunately, pitching is a bit of a problem. Aramis Ramirez will likely leave Chicago, but again, he's going to command more than he's worth, because he's the biggest bat available.

www.mlb4u.com has a list of potential free agents, let's see what can be dug up.

There's nothing at 3B. Nothing. Edgardo Alfonzo, Pedro Feliz, Mark Bellhorn, etc. I'll take Nunez for another year, he's played very good defense and will almost certainly hit better.

Catcher isn't much better. Bengie Molina might be available - the option is for 7.5 megabucks, but I suspect he'll stay in Toronto. Real slim pickin's after that. If you can sign Lieby with a serious hometown discount and have him split 50-50 with Coste, you might be ok, but the fans might revolt.

If Burrell gets moved, Carlos Lee would look really nice in left field behind Howard, but that'll be really expensive. Dellucci has cooled off significantly since the middle of the season, I wouldn't mind seeing him back, I wouldn't mind him gone. A bunch of intriguing right fielders, including Jose Guillen, Jermaine Dye, and Trot Nixon. Dye has an option which should get picked up. I think there's some potential here in the corners. I think you keep one of Dellucci and Burrell and go out and get someone to play on the other side. Dellucci is intriguing because, IIRC, he hit leadoff for the Rangers in 2005. If it comes down to it, he could do that next year, with Victorino hitting 2 and Rollins 5 or 6, depending on whether you get a right-handed bat to hit 5th. I don't think Bourn is quite ready yet, though he could platoon if you got a real big bat to hit on the other side.

There are lots of middling starters and a few big names - I'm not sure I'd go after anyone hard, but that depends where the market gets set. The bullpen needs work, but there are so few guarantees there that the best bet is to get a handful of arms and see what happens in Spring Training.

Unless they go out and make a big splash, I think they contend next year, but unless they get lucky, probably aren't a top team. 2008, on the other hand...

Call it a hunch, but I don't see the Phils making a big splash in free agency, and I don't blame them. Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito will command upwards of $10 million per year deals, and I'm not sure either are worth it. Unfortunately, pitching is a bit of a problem. Aramis Ramirez will likely leave Chicago, but again, he's going to command more than he's worth, because he's the biggest bat available.

www.mlb4u.com has a list of potential free agents, let's see what can be dug up.

There's nothing at 3B. Nothing. Edgardo Alfonzo, Pedro Feliz, Mark Bellhorn, etc. I'll take Nunez for another year, he's played very good defense and will almost certainly hit better.

Catcher isn't much better. Bengie Molina might be available - the option is for 7.5 megabucks, but I suspect he'll stay in Toronto. Real slim pickin's after that. If you can sign Lieby with a serious hometown discount and have him split 50-50 with Coste, you might be ok, but the fans might revolt.

If Burrell gets moved, Carlos Lee would look really nice in left field behind Howard, but that'll be really expensive. Dellucci has cooled off significantly since the middle of the season, I wouldn't mind seeing him back, I wouldn't mind him gone. A bunch of intriguing right fielders, including Jose Guillen, Jermaine Dye, and Trot Nixon. Dye has an option which should get picked up. I think there's some potential here in the corners. I think you keep one of Dellucci and Burrell and go out and get someone to play on the other side. Dellucci is intriguing because, IIRC, he hit leadoff for the Rangers in 2005. If it comes down to it, he could do that next year, with Victorino hitting 2 and Rollins 5 or 6, depending on whether you get a right-handed bat to hit 5th. I don't think Bourn is quite ready yet, though he could platoon if you got a real big bat to hit on the other side.

There are lots of middling starters and a few big names - I'm not sure I'd go after anyone hard, but that depends where the market gets set. The bullpen needs work, but there are so few guarantees there that the best bet is to get a handful of arms and see what happens in Spring Training.

Unless they go out and make a big splash, I think they contend next year, but unless they get lucky, probably aren't a top team. 2008, on the other hand...

As the previous post indicated, I don't think Manual has cost this team the wild card by playing Burrell over the last month or two. I do think he cost them the wild card by sending Wolf out for the 6th on Monday night. He struggled in the fifth, and gave up a critical game tying home run in the sixth inning. He then was stuck using Madson for only one batter (maybe consider having Madson bunt Nunez to second) and the bullpen was a disaster in the seventh. The mishandling of the bullpen Monday night was a costly error.

I feel better about Manuel next year than I did before, but I wouldn't mind seeing him gone, or at the very least a strong bench coach to give a hand with handling in-game situations, where Manuel clearly is lacking.

Ryan Howard carried the team through August and early September and has been ice cold since. Chase Utley was cold in August and heated up in mid-September. Jimmy Rollins has been white-hot in September and sparking the offense. Shane Victorino's been the second-biggest key in September, getting on behind Rollins and letting the middle of the order try to make things happen.

Pat Burrell checked into the party tonight. This is why playing him as much as he's been played lately is the correct move - if he had heated up earlier, this team would have won the wild card by now. If he stays hot and they get into the playoffs, they should go far. But I think giving Burrell playing time was crucial - Conine and Delucci haven't been getting it done, and Burrell has the most upside of the three.

For this team to be successful now and next year, they need a big right-handed bat in the lineup, hitting fifth. This offseason, they need to take a long look and see whether Pat Burrell is that guy. The last few years have indicated that he isn't, but he's shown flashes, just never for a full season (at least since 2002). He's been right around 30-100 for most of his career, and that's hard to replace.

I think I'd move him for pitching, but I'll take Burrell over the bag of baseballs that they'll likely end up trading him for.

Week 3 Picks

Ten (+10.5) v. MIA
MIN (+4) v. Chi
Car (-3) v. TB
HOU (+4) v. Was
NYJ (+5.5) v. BUF
Cin (+1.5) v. PIT
GB (+7) v. DET
Jax (+7) v. IND
Bal (-7) v. CLE
Phi (-6) v. SF
NYG (+3.5) v. SEA
ARI (-4.5) v. StL
NE (-7) v. Den
Atl (-4.5) v. NO

My motto this week: when in doubt, take the points.

One of the effects of the Eagles' loss this week was to refocus my attention on the Phillies. They're doing exactly what I thought a team needed to do to win the wild card, which is get hot. They've won five of six and seven of ten. They need to keep up this pace - I think seven more wins gets the wild card, but more would be better. Interestingly, they've gotten hot with their best hitter of late, one Ryan Howard, having gone cold. Chase Utley appears to be heating up, and what's keying everything is the top of the order, which has been quite good of late. The starting pitching has been superb, the bullpen leaves something to be desired. It's been an odd route to get here, but I think this team will end up finishing, in terms of wins, anyway, about where people expected it to.

Ended up 9-7 last week. We'll see if this continues.

It looks like the Phillies are starting to heat up again. Sweeping the 'stros out of the race was huge. A sweep of the Cubbies is not out of the question (Zambrano isn't scheduled to pitch), and would solidify the Phils' position by quite a bit. Right now, it looks like the Dodgers might be the odd team out; they took some tough losses to the Padres. Arizona's the big team right now - they play most of those teams in the West, and I'm not sure two teams can come out of that division.

After the early and late games.

I'm 8-6. Baltimore, Indy, Cincy, Atlanta, New Orleans, Seattle, and San Diego covered, and Kansas City lost on an OT field goal - those 10.5 points were mighty tempting, and they paid off. We'll see how I do with the two prime time games.

It is the opinion of some that the Eagles can't run up the middle. I believe they can. The middle of the offensive line is huge, albeit somewhat inexperienced. But if the Eagles run early and run often, the defense will be worn out and softened up, and the guys up front will be able to open big holes, even in the middle, for Westbrook and Buckhalter to get yards in bunches.

Stop me before I pass again

Last week was a mirage. Perhaps the quality (or lack thereof) of the opponent had something to do with it, but Coach Reid and company appeared to have learned a key lesson and ran the ball early and often on the way to an easy victory in Houston.

This week, however, the lessons learned were forgotten, and the results were disasterous, to say the least. For three quarters, the Eagles went pass-wacky and got quite a few points to show for it. But win them the game it didn't. They tried to flip a switch in the fourth quarter and suddenly start running the ball. But a fourth-quarter running game is only effective if you can pick up first downs on the ground. And the way to do that is to run early. Even if you're only getting two and three yards a carry, run the ball early to wear down the defense. Late in the game, when the defense is tired, those two and three yard carries will become five and six yard carries, which, when strung together, get first downs. And first downs run out the clock.

If the Eagles stay pass-wacky, the play action will cease to be effective. It was effective in Houston because they were running the ball. It was somewhat effective against New York because it was so effective last week, and NFL teams watch film. But after this game, I find it hard to swallow that professional teams will be sold on the Eagles running the ball.

With two cupcakes coming up, it should be easy to solve the Eagles' passwackyitis. Or so we can hope.

Sure, why not

BAL (-12) over Oak
IND (-13.5) over Hou
CIN (-10) over Cle
MIA (-6.5) over Buf
Det (+8.5) over CHI
Car over MIN
PHI (-3) over NYG
ATL (-5.5) over TB
NO (-2) over @GB
StL (-3) over SF
SEA (-7) over Ari
@NYJ (+6) over NE
SD (-11.5) over Ten
KC (+10.5) over DEN
Was(+6.5) over DAL
JAX (+2.5) over Pit