Week 12.5

Week 12 Rankings

Me: Bal -3

Last Week (incl' Thanksgiving): 7-8-1
Overall: 63-86-11

Computer @Cin +3

Last Week (incl' Thanksgiving): 8-7-1
Overall: 24-37-5

Week 12 Picks

Me:

SF +4.5
@Min -6.5
@NYJ -4.5
Car -4
@Bal -3
NO +3
Jax -3
Cin -3
@SD -13.5
Chi +4
NYG -3
Phi +9
GB +9

Week 11: 5-8-3
Week 11.5: 2-1
Overall: 58-79-10

Computer:
SF +4.5
@Min -6.5
@NYJ -6
@Was +4
@Bal -3
NO +3
Jax -3
Cin -3
@SD -13.5
Chi +4
NYG -3
Phi +9
GB +9

Week 11: 4-9-3
Week 11.5: 2-1
Overall: 18-31-4

Week 11 Rankings

These numbers do not include Thursday's games.

RANK TEAM LAST CHANGE SCORE PCT RAMOV ASOS SOV PAPG
1 IND 1 0 1.000 0.900 1.80 0.544 0.489 21.00
2 CHI 2 0 0.975 0.900 4.70 0.456 0.422 12.00
3 SD 7 4 0.905 0.800 4.40 0.500 0.413 20.20
4 NE 4 0 0.894 0.700 4.20 0.533 0.429 13.10
5 BAL 5 0 0.879 0.800 2.10 0.511 0.438 14.70
6 DEN 3 -3 0.836 0.700 1.30 0.556 0.457 14.60
7 NYG 6 -1 0.723 0.600 1.30 0.567 0.417 20.80
8 JAC 8 0 0.679 0.600 2.80 0.478 0.483 13.70
9 DAL 12 3 0.645 0.600 3.40 0.467 0.433 18.80
10 CIN 15 5 0.641 0.500 1.30 0.567 0.500 23.30
11 KC 11 0 0.544 0.600 -0.30 0.478 0.450 19.50
12 NYJ 19 7 0.521 0.500 -0.70 0.544 0.400 21.70
13 CAR 17 4 0.508 0.600 -1.70 0.478 0.450 17.30
14 PIT 13 -1 0.507 0.400 2.90 0.511 0.475 22.70
15 NO 10 -5 0.487 0.600 -0.50 0.467 0.383 22.80
16 BUF 20 4 0.415 0.400 -0.60 0.533 0.375 20.10
17 PHI 9 -8 0.400 0.500 0.00 0.444 0.420 19.40
18 MIA 24 6 0.394 0.400 -0.10 0.478 0.550 18.80
19 CLE 14 -5 0.382 0.300 0.60 0.544 0.400 20.80
20 SEA 16 -4 0.372 0.600 -2.70 0.444 0.333 21.90
21 MIN 18 -3 0.359 0.400 -0.80 0.489 0.425 18.20
22 STL 21 -1 0.351 0.400 -1.00 0.511 0.375 23.60
23 ATL 26 3 0.345 0.500 -1.40 0.444 0.400 20.50
24 TB 25 1 0.304 0.300 -2.00 0.544 0.433 21.40
25 TEN 31 6 0.298 0.300 -1.60 0.556 0.367 25.60
26 HOU 23 -3 0.287 0.300 -0.90 0.500 0.533 23.00
27 WAS 22 -5 0.268 0.300 -0.60 0.489 0.500 23.70
28 SF 30 2 0.234 0.500 -5.30 0.478 0.360 26.50
29 OAK 29 0 0.175 0.200 -1.70 0.533 0.300 19.80
30 GB 27 -3 0.161 0.400 -3.30 0.456 0.300 25.20
31 DET 28 -3 0.032 0.200 -2.40 0.444 0.450 23.90
32 ARI 32 0 0.000 0.200 -3.20 0.456 0.350 23.30
 AVG   0.485 0.500 0.000 0.500 0.422 20.372
 STDEV   0.268 0.195 2.413 0.040 0.060 3.670
 MEDIAN   0.408 0.500 -0.550 0.494 0.424 20.800

Because blogger doesn't handle basic HTML tags like <pre> properly, here's a link to the rankings properly formatted.

Week 11.5 Picks

Me:

Miami -3
TB +11
@KC +1.5

Computer:

@Det +3
@Dal -11
@KC +1.5

Week 11 Picks

Me:
Min +3
Cin +3
Chi -6
@Phi -13
@Bal -3.5
Buf +3
@Cle +4
@TB -3
StL +6.5
@GB +6
@KC -9
Det +2
Sea -3
Ind -1
@Den -2.5
@Jax -4

Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 51-70-7

Computer:
Min +3
@NO -3
Chi -6
@Phi -13
@Bal -3.5
Buf +3
@Cle +4
Was +3
StL +6.5
NE -6
@KC -9
Det +2
Sea -3
@Dal +1
SD +2.5
NYG +4

Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 12-21-1

Ratings

  LAST CHANGE SCORE PCT RAMOV ASOS SOV PAPG
1 IND 1 0 1.000 1.000 1.00 0.556 0.494 21.00
2 CHI 4 2 0.958 0.889 5.44 0.444 0.417 13.33
3 DEN 3 0 0.813 0.778 0.67 0.542 0.444 12.33
4 NE 2 -2 0.795 0.667 3.00 0.556 0.407 14.56
5 BAL 5 0 0.793 0.778 2.00 0.500 0.413 15.22
6 NYG 6 0 0.775 0.667 1.78 0.597 0.426 20.22
7 SD 7 0 0.755 0.778 3.67 0.444 0.349 19.44
8 JAC 8 0 0.603 0.556 2.56 0.472 0.444 14.11
9 PHI 12 3 0.543 0.556 1.56 0.472 0.422 18.11
10 NO 9 -1 0.535 0.667 -0.22 0.458 0.389 21.89
11 KC 10 -1 0.520 0.556 0.33 0.486 0.489 20.22
12 DAL 11 -1 0.482 0.556 2.89 0.403 0.311 19.33
13 PIT 18 5 0.477 0.333 3.44 0.528 0.519 23.00
14 CLE 22 8 0.460 0.333 1.33 0.583 0.444 20.44
15 CIN 16 1 0.441 0.444 0.33 0.528 0.444 24.11
16 SEA 13 -3 0.439 0.667 -2.67 0.458 0.352 22.11
17 CAR 15 -2 0.426 0.556 -1.78 0.472 0.444 19.22
18 MIN 14 -4 0.392 0.444 -1.11 0.500 0.444 17.56
19 NYJ 24 5 0.386 0.556 -2.22 0.486 0.356 23.00
20 BUF 23 3 0.384 0.333 -0.22 0.569 0.407 20.00
21 STL 21 0 0.376 0.444 -0.67 0.514 0.389 24.56
22 WAS 19 -3 0.346 0.333 0.11 0.528 0.481 24.11
23 HOU 26 3 0.310 0.333 -0.67 0.514 0.481 22.89
24 MIA 27 3 0.310 0.333 0.00 0.458 0.556 18.67
25 TB 20 -5 0.296 0.222 -0.78 0.583 0.500 21.89
26 ATL 17 -9 0.273 0.556 -2.67 0.389 0.333 20.11
27 GB 28 1 0.234 0.444 -1.44 0.431 0.278 24.11
28 DET 25 -3 0.139 0.222 -1.89 0.500 0.444 24.67
29 OAK 31 2 0.125 0.222 -2.33 0.528 0.222 20.11
30 SF 29 -1 0.118 0.444 -5.44 0.458 0.333 27.89
31 TEN 30 -1 0.112 0.222 -3.33 0.556 0.333 27.00
32 ARI 32 0 0.000 0.111 -2.67 0.486 0.444 24.78
 AVG   0.457 0.500 0.000 0.500 0.413 20.625
 STDEV   0.252 0.213 2.383 0.052 0.073 3.840
 MEDIAN   0.432 0.500 -0.111 0.500 0.424 20.333

Computer picks

Cle +8
KC +1
GB +5.5
@NE -11
@Phi -7
@Jax -10.5
SD -1
SF +6
Bal -7
Buf +12
Den -9.5
Dal -7
NO +4.5
@Sea -3
Chi Even
TB +9.5

Last Week: 4-9-1

Week 10

Cle +8
KC +1
@Min -5.5
NYJ +10.5
@Phi -7
@Jax -10
SD -1
SF +6
Bal -7
@Ind -12
Den -9.5
Dal -6.5
NO +5
StL +3
Chi +1
@Car -9.5

Last Week: 5-8-1
Overall: 42-63-7

$38-45 Million?!?! For the right to negotiate for 30 days with a Scott Boras client. If these rumors are true, the Red Sox have just spent way too much money.

In other baseball news, I'm very happy to see Sheffield go to the Tigers. Why? Because it means he's not coming to the Phillies, which would have been a huge mistake.

I've been manipulating statistics for a while, and have come up with some reasonable power rankings.

Methodology:

For all of the stats that go into this, I've normalized the range. The best team for the category is given a 1, the worst a 0, and all other teams get a score between 0 and 1, scaled linearly. All stats only factor in games already played - there's no look-ahead.

The most important stat is winning percentage (WPCT). It counts for 50% of the ranking.

The second stat is the complicated one. I'll relative adjusted margin of victory (RAMOV). I developed a formula for predicting the outcome of the game. It compares the average margin of victory of the two teams in other games (so it can "predict" already played games). However, the actual margins of victory are scaled to reduce the effects of blowouts. The first 10 points of victory count full, the next 10 count half, the next half again, and so on (well, anything above 40 counts 1/16th). So a 32 point win counts 10 + 10/2 + 10/4 + 2/8 = 17.75. The home team gets a two point swing. So if team A, averaging a 3 point win, plays at home against team B,averaging a 4 point loss, the expected result is a 9 point win for team A. If, in reality, team A won by 6, it goes into the RAMOV number as -3 for team A and 3 for team B. This is averaged, but it doesn't really matter since all teams have now played the same number of games. This counts as 25% of the ranking.

Adjusted strength of schedule is the third stat (ASOS). It's the average winning percentage of opponents in games other than the game against the team. Alternatively, it's the total number of wins by opponents less the number of losses by the team divided by the number of games played by the opposition less the number of games played by the team. This counts 15%.

Strength of victory (SOV) plays a minor role. It's like strength of schedule, but only factoring in teams that the team beat. There's no adjustment, since it'd be constant factor depending on the winning percentage of the team. This counds 5%.

The last stat is points allowed per game (PAPG). Defense wins games in the playoffs, so this is important. Or maybe it's included because it pushes Denver ahead of Baltimore, which is my subjective opinion of the rankings. You decide. This counts 5%.

The normalized values for each stat are multiplied by the percentage, resulting in a ranking number. This is normalized in the same way to give the team score.

STAT MIN MAX MEAN STDEV MEDIAN
WPCT .125 1.00 .500 .222 .500
RAMOV -5.75 4.25 0 2.637 -.625
ASOS .393 .625 .500 .056 .500
SOV .188 .563 .400 .085 .403
PAPG 29.75 12.25 20.63 4.18 20.75
RANKING FACTOR  .428 .256 .401

 RANKFAC WPCT RAMOV ASOS SOV PAPG
1 IND 1.000 1.000 2.38 0.607 0.531 21.63
2 NE 0.849 0.750 4.25 0.571 0.417 14.25
3 DEN 0.792 0.750 1.50 0.589 0.479 12.25
4 CHI 0.790 0.875 4.25 0.393 0.375 12.50
5 BAL 0.786 0.750 3.00 0.536 0.458 13.88
6 NYG 0.732 0.750 1.63 0.554 0.417 18.00
7 SD 0.665 0.750 3.25 0.429 0.313 16.75
8 JAC 0.634 0.625 3.50 0.464 0.400 14.25
9 NO 0.566 0.750 -0.63 0.464 0.375 19.88
10 KC 0.560 0.625 0.75 0.500 0.475 21.13
11 DAL 0.494 0.500 3.63 0.446 0.344 20.50
12 PHI 0.465 0.500 1.63 0.482 0.375 20.00
13 SEA 0.451 0.625 -1.88 0.500 0.375 22.13
14 MIN 0.440 0.500 -0.75 0.518 0.438 16.88
15 CAR 0.433 0.500 -0.88 0.518 0.500 20.38
16 CIN 0.403 0.500 -0.75 0.500 0.406 21.00
17 ATL 0.399 0.625 -1.50 0.429 0.325 20.50
18 PIT 0.380 0.250 3.75 0.518 0.438 22.00
19 WAS 0.371 0.375 0.25 0.536 0.458 23.75
20 TB 0.351 0.250 -0.25 0.625 0.500 21.63
21 STL 0.348 0.500 -1.38 0.482 0.375 24.63
22 CLE 0.330 0.250 1.13 0.571 0.375 21.38
23 BUF 0.299 0.375 -1.38 0.518 0.375 20.38
24 NYJ 0.247 0.500 -3.50 0.464 0.281 24.13
25 DET 0.207 0.250 -1.38 0.518 0.500 25.38
26 HOU 0.184 0.250 -1.38 0.500 0.438 24.50
27 MIA 0.173 0.250 -0.63 0.411 0.563 19.75
28 GB 0.150 0.375 -2.13 0.429 0.208 25.00
29 SF 0.110 0.375 -5.75 0.500 0.417 29.75
30 TEN 0.052 0.250 -4.38 0.500 0.313 27.00
31 OAK 0.051 0.250 -3.13 0.446 0.188 20.50
32 ARI 0.000 0.125 -3.25 0.482 0.375 24.50

I've been futzing with some statistics. The computer has made the following picks.

KC +1 (StL to win)
NYG -13
NO -1
Dallas +3
JAX -9.5
Bal -3
GB +3
Chi -13
Atl -5
Min -4
Pit +3 (Den to Win)
SD -13.5
NE -3
Oak +7 (Sea to Win)

We'll see.

@StL -2.5
@NYG -13
NO -1
Dal +3
@JAX -9.5
Bal -3
GB +3
@CHI -14
Atl -5.5
Min -4.5
Den -3
SD -13.5
IND +3
Oak +7

Last Week: 6-8
37-55-6